The Bull and Bear View of Lake Street in Miller

Not a Realtor Opines ...

Feb 05, 2023

Lake Street is the “high” street of Miller — a concept familiar to those who know small English towns. Rather than a town square with multiple intersecting streets — which is more common in small town America (think Valparaiso or Crowne Point) — a high street is the single center of local commerce.

Unless it isn’t.

Miller doesn’t have much commerce on Lake Street. Granted we have a growing set of places to get a bite to eat, but there’s really one true restaurant, Tequilas and Tacos, although I hear more are coming.

Lake Street has at least one great little boutique in the form of Indie Indie Bang Bang (which I would argue is probably more a labor of love and a gift to our community than a profit center for its owners relative to their other stores and ventures, not to mention their fantastic online site).

I would also be remiss if I did not point out 18th Street (which is still my favorite brewery in the Midwest — full review under new ownership coming soon) and Vibrations, a great hippie vegan friendly joint. Incidentally, I apologize to both owners for my limited patronage this winter relative to normal, and hope to remedy that soon.

But to be candid, Lake Street is dismal — just dismal — from a restaurant and retail perspective relative to other nearby towns in Northwest Indiana. And it has been for a long time.

The only frequent customers who come day in and day out to Lake St. are buying booze from the liquor store.

Hopefully a new Mexican place and the long-awaited Tiny’s Coffee will change things.

But will it?

Below, I’ll present two views of Lake Street: Bull and Bear. Of course the economic truth — there is no “my truth” in economics — probably lies in the middle.

Bull

Here’s my bullish take on Lake Street:

Lake Street is a low cost investment given the small capital outlay to buy and hold real estate (although the rents make it hard to make an investment cash flow positive). Moreover, Lake Street is in Qualified Opportunity Zone 18089010201. Qualified OZs are tax advantaged investment zones — something which I’ll write about in the future in more detail in terms of Miller — which essentially allows investors to permanently defer or eliminate previous capital gains from taxes if they invest and hold. It’s a giant advantage for investors over a longer-term horizon.
The South Shore Line. Our train situation currently stinks in Miller (which I won’t go into detail here) as our train line is being renovated and there is no local service except a bus which takes you to a ~~shelter~~ station in downtown Gary. But pretty soon, as the new Miller station opens and the Double Track project is complete, it will cut the travel time to Chicago and increase the train frequency dramatically. I love the South Shore Line and it will only get incrementally better. Soon.
Rents are low (as noted above). This makes the cost of experimentation with new concepts low.
Arts. We got arts! Thanks to all the volunteers who contribute to The Marshall J. Gardner Center For The Arts.
Photo Source: Jason Busch (2023)
That giant (Chicago) sucking sound. Each year, more people are tired of Chicago property taxes, crappy schools (only 24% of 11th graders are proficient in reading and math despite spending $27K per student annually) and Kim Foxx’s approach to not prosecuting crime. While for many leaving Chicago the choice to move to a more traditional suburb (especially those with good public schools) is an easy one, there are others departing for whom maintaining an urban edge to life while embracing nature is the priority — which makes Miller perfect. I can say firsthand that those who leave the windy city miss the vibrancy of local stores and would love nothing more than to shop on Lake.
Demographics. When we see $1.2MM small lots for sale on the Lakefront and $1MM tear downs (multiple realtors told me this was a tear down), it’s only a matter of time before big spenders come to Miller who won’t mind paying top dollar for Pilates classes and Prime steaks (or Impossible Burgers) on Lake.

Bear

Investor pros. One of my best friends from high school is a successful small town real estate investor. He’s taken major risks and had some serious home runs over the years. When he visited me in Miller last spring and we walked up and down Lake, he asked: “where are the cranes? The fact there was no investment in the low interest rate climate is a strong negative for the outlook of Lake Street.”
There’s random crime that still happens around Lake Street. Like frequent gun shots on the side streets. The crime blotter (if you follow it) is not great. And it’s not getting better (46403 is still “D-” rated for violent crime and the areas around Lake St. downtown aren’t great). Personally, I feel much safer walking on Lake St. than I do on Broadway or Halsted in Chicago these days (my old hoods), but we should not kid ourselves — it’s not all together safe.
Blight. For example, when a car runs into a garage on Lake and catches fire, only in a place like ~~Gary~~ Miller does the business keep functioning without repairing the damage. Note: I’m not passing judgement (I don’t know the circumstances), but it’s been nearly six months since the accident happened and it looks like crap.
Photo Source: Jason Busch (2023)
No “anchor” stores. What do I mean by anchor? An anchor store might be a hardware store, grocer, bakery, etc. (Dollar Stores and Liquor marts — which we have — don’t count). Until Lake St. has a store that keeps people coming to day in and day out, it won’t have the foot traffic necessary to create an ecosystem of other places. Might Tiny’s help create this? Let’s hope.
Active policing. Active policing could be as simple as stopping cars for traffic violations or non-registration and cutting the speeding on Lake.
Gary. I could live anywhere. And I decided to move to Gary. I love our industry. I love our parks. I volunteer for the Calumet Region Little League (we have a great field off of Lake) which does wonders for our youth on a budget that is an absolute joke relative to other leagues. The coaches, parents and kids are amazing. But Gary is still highly questionable in terms of governance. As long as we are part of a local government with spending black holes and a history of malfeasance that makes Lori Lightfoot look like a good Mayor, it will be a negative for investors considering major projects on Lake.

Where am I personally on Lake Street?

If I could go long on Miller and short on Gary to hedge my bets, I’d have put some chips on the Lake Street table already.

Instead, I’m personally sitting on the sidelines waiting for evidence that the bull factors outweigh the bears.

Perhaps that first boozy coffee at Tiny’s will change my mind.

Miller Beach Musings

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